XO Market
D Tier
LATEST UPDATE · OCTOBER 27, 2026
Maker rewards pool live since Oct 8, 2026; PnL contest to Nov 3; no token language; US/UK blocked. Grok: Tier D, #36, 'leave it off if you don't want readers sent to a venue that blocks them'. Listed with the block in the first line.The numbers
Expected FDV
$40m
$15m – $120m
Airdrop pool
$3m
Unknown; 7.5% assumed
Team score
7/10
founders, exits, backers, flags
Wallets earning
57,552 users (Dune, ~Oct 9, 2026); $68m of volume and $4.5k of fees in the last 30 days (DefiLlama, Oct 27)
fewer is better for you
Token window
None; the terms say points 'have no monetary value'
points live 16 months
$10m$100m$1b$10b
How we got the FDV: A $6m seed (20VC, Picus, Coinbase Ventures) and no token language. Comp: Limitless ~$29m (CoinGecko, Oct 27). Assumption.
A Coinbase Ventures-backed prediction market with a live maker-rewards pool, but it blocks US and UK readers and has said nothing about a token. Only worth it if you are already making markets elsewhere.
Conviction Points have accrued since the July 2025 alpha, scaled by position size, holding time and how contrarian the bet is, and since Oct 8 a $1m USDC plus 10M CP pool pays resting limit orders on the BTC 5-minute markets by price, size and resting time, plus 35% maker rebates. Named founders (CEO Ali Habbabeh, CTO Walid Al Habboul), a $6m seed closed Apr 30, 2026 co-led by 20VC and Picus with Coinbase Ventures. The product is real: permissionless market creation, 600+ active markets at the raise.
Cut it if: the US block stays and no token language appears by the end of the year; or CP keeps being spent on parlays instead of counted.
Who's farming it: Grok found no farmer coverage beyond the PnL contest (Oct 27). The maker-rewards post (Oct 8) drew 29.8k views.
What is XO Market?
An open prediction market where anyone can create yes/no markets, resolved by an AI system with disputes, plus 5-minute BTC 'Pulse' markets, parlays and contests. Founded by Ali Habbabeh and Walid Al Habboul; $6m seed co-led by 20VC and Picus Capital with Coinbase Ventures (Apr 30, 2026). Conviction Points since the July 2025 alpha; liquidity rewards since Oct 8, 2026. The terms restrict the US, UK, France, Singapore and Ontario.
Airdrop parameters
POINTS / CLAIM END
No end date
ALLOCATION
Nothing announced; terms say CP 'do not represent any monetary value' and can be revoked
METHOD
CP from filled trades plus per-minute accrual on open positions by size and contrarian-ness (rates per market, unpublished); $1m USDC over 12 months plus 10M CP for resting orders (closeness × size × resting time, two-sided 3x); referrals from 10% CP / 5% fees (Bronze) to 30% / 15% (Diamond)
TGE
None
ACCESS
Blocked for the United States, United Kingdom, France, Singapore and Ontario per the terms (revised Oct 20); VPNs banned; 18+. Privy login (social or wallet); no KYC to trade, identity checks before contest payouts. Deposits from EVM or Solana wallets or card into USDC on its own Celestia-based rollup. Taker-only fee of shares × base × p × (1−p) (6% base on Pulse, ~4% elsewhere); makers pay 0 and get a 35% rebate. Creating a market costs $1 plus a $10 seed.
CHAIN
Multi-chain
How to farm
01
Confirm you are allowed
Not for US, UK, France, Singapore or Ontario. No VPNs.
02
Quote the BTC Pulse book
Daily epochs from 00:00 UTC pay resting orders from the $1m USDC + 10M CP pool; 35% maker rebate on fills.
03
Take a few contrarian positions
CP scales with how far from consensus your side is and how long you hold.
04
Don't burn CP on parlays
CP is spendable; keep it if you are here for a possible count.